19/02/2026

Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey

According to Ninamedia January survey, short-term and medium-term inflation expectations of the financial sector continued moving within NBS target tolerance band (3±1.5%). Short-term inflation expectations went down from 3.1% in December to 3.0% in the January survey, meeting the NBS target midpoint for the first time since September 2021. Two-year ahead inflation expectations dropped from 3.5% in December to 3.1% in the January survey with a simultaneous decline in three-year ahead expectations from 3.2% to 3.0%.

According to the February Bloomberg survey results, short-term inflation expectations of the financial sector fell from 3.8% in January to 3.7%.

According to Ninamedia, short-term inflation expectations of corporates stayed unchanged from the previous month, at 5.0%, the level they have been at for the most part of 2025. Medium-term corporate expectations declined from 5.0% in December to 4.0% in the January survey for two years ahead and to 4.7% for three years ahead, continuing to move in the 4.0%–5.0% range since late 2023.

For the purpose of transparent communication with the public, since May 2015 the NBS has been publishing regular monthly reports on inflation expectations of the financial sector, corporate sector, trade unions and households. The Report on the Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey and the accompanying materials (time series, methodology and the survey questionnaire) can be accessed on the NBS website, section Publications.

Economic Research and Statistics Department